SAFETIES worth more

Postby GOD Loves You » Tue Jul 28, 2009 9:51 am

I had this article published at www.fantasypros911.com and felt the need to share it here as well. It basically shows how scoring for safeties are neglected in fantasy football. In fact, the numbers as a whole show the entire scoring is rewarded unfairly. If every other position, besides Kicker, has the capability to score in the 300's, why don't we make some changes so defenses can easily reach the same scoring plateu??

In the article, the stats were displayed in tables, when I paste them here, it makes it hard to read. If you want an easier read, check out the website or send me a pm with your e-mail address and I'll forward the info. If you take a look at the numbers, they really don't lie; changes need to be made.
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From the time of my youth, I’ve always been the questioning type. From things of utter importance to the most minute, it’s served me well to wonder why “it” was the status quo. One can never learn without asking questions and investigating circumstances for themselves.

With fantasy football being such a large part of my life, I’ve questioned many things involved with the hobby. From the unwritten rule of drafting running backs with my first two to three picks in the draft to avoiding a rookie laden team; I’ve questioned and found the road less traveled is usually the best path.

The past few seasons I’ve started wondering why fantasy defenses receive the same amount of points for a safety as they do for an interception or fumble recovery. Why was the scoring the same? Were they truly equal? Was this simply the formats I participated in or was it a general setting across the industry? It was time to do some investigating.

From the National Fantasy Football Championships(NFFC) to the World Championships of Fantasy Football(WCOFF) to NFL.com, ESPN.com and Yahoo Sports, the scoring for fantasy defenses remain the same. Each defense receives two points for an interception, fumble recovery and safety. They also receive one point for each recorded sack.

This led me to wonder how the stats were dispersed. From watching the games, it’s easy to see there are more sacks than interceptions, fumble recoveries and especially safeties; hence the one point rewarded for each sack. Without investigating, this awarding of one point seems valid, but what about the three stats awarded two points? How equal are these?

The tables below contain stat totals for the past nine NFL seasons, as well as the first season the league recorded sacks, 1982. Each table possesses the overall total for the entire NFL for interceptions, sacks, fumble recoveries and safeties. They also contain the number for the team with the highest and lowest total of each statistic, as well as the number of teams recording each stat.



2008 Season Interceptions Sacks Fumbles Safeties
Total For NFL 465 1036 328 21
Team High 26 59 17 3
Team Low 4 10 4 0
Total Teams 32 32 32 14


2008: Three teams recorded three safeties. One team had two.


2007 Season Interceptions Sacks Fumbles Safeties
Total For NFL 534 1102 369 18
Team High 30 53 19 2
Team Low 11 22 6 0
Total Teams 32 32 32 15


2007: Three teams recorded multiple safeties.



2006 Season Interceptions Sacks Fumbles Safeties
Total For NFL 520 1163 377 12
Team High 28 61 20 2
Team Low 6 19 4 0
Total Teams 32 32 32 10


2006: Two teams recorded multiple safeties.


2005 Season Interceptions Sacks Fumbles Safeties
Total For NFL 506 1182 389 11
Team High 31 50 19 3
Team Low 5 23 7 0
Total Teams 32 32 32 9


2005: One team recorded three safeties.


2004 Season Interceptions Sacks Fumbles Safeties
Total For NFL 524 1196 379 12
Team High 26 48 20 3
Team Low 6 24 7 0
Total Teams 32 32 32 15


2004: One team recorded three safeties, while another had two.


2003 Season Interceptions Sacks Fumble Safeties
Total For NFL 538 1092 372 17
Team High 29 47 22 3
Team Low 9 18 5 0
Total Teams 32 32 32 21


2003: One team recorded three safeties. Two other teams had multiple safeties.



2002 Season Interceptions Sacks Fumble Safeties
Total For NFL 528 1175 397 12
Team High 31 56 22 3
Team Low 9 21 6 0
Total Teams 32 32 32 8


2002: One team recorded three safeties, while another two had multiple.



2001 Season Interceptions Sacks Fumble Safeties
Total For NFL 545 1196 379 10
Team High 33 55 19 2
Team Low 8 19 6 0
Total Teams 31 31 31 9


2001: One team recorded multiple safeties.


2000 Season Interceptions Sacks Fumbles Safety
Total For NFL 531 1232 398 16
Team High 28 66 26 2
Team Low 8 25 6 0
Total Teams 31 31 31 14


2000: Two teams recorded multiple safeties.


1982 Season Interceptions Sacks Fumbles Safety
Total For NFL 349 673 264 10
Team High 19 38 15 2
Team Low 3 11 4 0
Total Teams 28 28 28 8


1982: Two teams recorded multiple safeties.


To make it quite simple, the chart below is an average of the past nine NFL seasons.


9 Year Average Interceptions Sacks Fumbles Safety
Total For NFL 521 1153 376 14
Team High 29 55 20 2.5
Team Low 7 20 6 0
Total Teams 32 32 32 13


As you can see, the numbers do not lie. A 2nd grader would be able to look at the stats to figure out how unequal they are compared to one another. Overall, there are twice as many sacks as any other statistic; it makes sense to award the least amount of points for a sack.

The amount of interceptions and fumble recoveries each season are relatively close when compared to the amount of sacks, but ultimately there is a difference. For every 1.4 interceptions a fumble recovery occurs. Technically, they are not equal and should be scored differently.

When you take a look at the average amount of safeties each season, one can easily see how it is neglected when it comes to the points awarded. On average, there’s only fourteen occurring each season for the entire NFL.

Fourteen!! There’s an average of 14 safeties each season in the NFL, yet the safeties receive the same amount of points for fantasy defenses as the 521 interceptions and 376 fumble recoveries. This is not right. In fact, if this injustice was presented to a jury, it would be one of the fastest trials in history.

It doesn’t make sense to score interceptions, fumble recoveries and safeties the same in fantasy football. During a “normal” season in the NFL, less than half of the teams record a safety. The fantasy owner rostering a defense that does something over half of the league is unable to do should be rewarded for it.

Take a closer look at the average numbers.

For every 82nd sack, there’s a safety.
For every 37th interception, there’s a safety.
For every 27th fumble, there’s a safety.

A revolution needs to occur across the fantasy football landscape. Let’s stop neglecting the safeties in our fantasy football leagues. It took the NFL over sixty years to start recording sacks as a stat; is the fantasy football world going to wait as long to reward the overachieving fantasy defense by ignoring just how rare the safety is during each season? Let’s give the safety it’s due in fantasy football.
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SAFETIES worth more

Postby GOD Loves You » Wed Jul 29, 2009 3:47 am

Originally posted by GK:
...ok Patrick how many points are you proposing for a DEF that records a safety then?...SNAKE
20! :D

Nothing crazy. From looking at the data, I think we need something like:

Sacks 1
Interceptions 2
Fumble Recoveries 3
Safeties 5-7

I'd really like to see safeties awarded 10, but I know that would never fly.
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SAFETIES worth more

Postby Greg Ambrosius » Wed Jul 29, 2009 9:13 am

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:
quote:
Originally posted by GK:
[b] ...ok Patrick how many points are you proposing for a DEF that records a safety then?...SNAKE
20! :D

Nothing crazy. From looking at the data, I think we need something like:

Sacks 1
Interceptions 2
Fumble Recoveries 3
Safeties 5-7

I'd really like to see safeties awarded 10, but I know that would never fly. [/b][/QUOTE]Patrick, I agree that we want to reward teams for great defensive scoring efforts, but giving 10 points or even 5-7 for a two-point safety seems a bit much to me. Some might even consider that a "lucky" score for that week.

As it is, a QB sack for a safety is worth three points. Providing more points is always possible, but I certainly wouldn't go too overboard and right now I just don't see a lot of push from others to jump on this. But we'll see.
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SAFETIES worth more

Postby pizzatyme » Wed Jul 29, 2009 10:15 am

I think the safety is too rare to give that much weight.

IMO, I'd be much more inclined to score defenses differently. Like points for yards allowed and points allowed.

Although to Patrick's point, why is a 52 yard FG worth 5.2 points and a great defensive play only worth 2 points?
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SAFETIES worth more

Postby GOD Loves You » Sat Aug 01, 2009 10:02 am

I'll get back to you guys in a few.
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SAFETIES worth more

Postby Captain Hook » Tue Aug 04, 2009 4:58 am

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:
I'll get back to you guys in a few.
waiting until another safety is scored???
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SAFETIES worth more

Postby GOD Loves You » Thu Aug 06, 2009 2:29 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:
quote:
Originally posted by GOD Loves You:
[b] I'll get back to you guys in a few.
waiting until another safety is scored??? [/b][/QUOTE]Yep....that and extremely busy.
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SAFETIES worth more

Postby Gordon Gekko II » Sat Aug 15, 2009 3:52 pm

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Some might even consider that a "lucky" score for that week.
agreed.
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SAFETIES worth more

Postby GOD Loves You » Sun Aug 16, 2009 1:40 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:
quote:
Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
[b] Some might even consider that a "lucky" score for that week.
agreed. [/b][/QUOTE]I will have an answer to the luck argument within the next few weeks. It's going to take a little time to research this.
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