Derby Day 11

Postby Ted's Cracked Head » Sat May 07, 2011 4:52 am

I love this day almost as much as FF draft day!

Here is who I like today in another WIDE OPEN Derby:

16 - Animal Knigdom ( 30/1 ) - fits my profile, has enough pace to be somewhere like 4th-8th turning home and with a shot at closing them down. (esp if the pace is not too fast)

19 - Nehro ( 6/1) - improving horse who should like the extra distance. Likely bet down further.

8 - Dialed In ( 4/1) - too good to throw out and he too will be bet down

17 - Soldat ( 12/1) - I like this horse. Think he has the turn of foot to stay out of trouble and especially if it rains. (esp if the pace is not too fast)

15 - Midnight Interlude (10/1) - also fits my derby profile

9 - Derby Kitten ( 30/1) - my hunch.

I should have #1 Archarcharch in my group of six ibut Derby Kitten keeps calling me back to look closer.

Simple wagers:

$1 Tri Box all six ($120)
$2 Exacta Box all six horses ($60)

Good luck to all today!

Rob
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Derby Day 11

Postby Shrink Attack » Sat May 07, 2011 5:31 am

So Rob...if you were going to place one bet to Win, would you pluck it down on Animal Kingdom?

Or would you lay a bet for AK to win/place/show?
"Deserve" ain't got nothin' to do with it
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Derby Day 11

Postby Ted's Cracked Head » Sat May 07, 2011 5:51 am

It all depends on available bank.

I am only willing to put 200 at risk today. I think the Tri and exacta offer value that is too good to use my wagers on a win, place or show bet.

If I had $60 more to bet and was forced to bet on one horse, I would probably bet my top choice across the board for $20 each. Animal Kingdom is that horse for me today. I have him liking the distance and if it is a slow pace, which I predict, it could favor him if he can be in the first group of horses. If he gets caught up or shuffled back......

The complete early Derby odds: as found on the DRF site this morning.

Dialed In (9-2)
Twice the Appeal (7-1)
Nehro (7-1)
Pants on Fire (9-1)
Midnight Interlude (10-1)
Mucho Macho Man (12-1)
Archarcharch (13-1)
Stay Thirsty (17-1)
Soldat (17-1)
Shackleford (19-1)
Master of Hounds (18-1)
Twinspired (21-1)
Animal Kingdom (24-1)
Watch Me Go (29-1)
Derby Kitten (29-1)
Santiva (30-1)
Brilliant Speed (30-1)
Decisive Moment (42-1)
Comma to the Top (43-1)
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Derby Day 11

Postby Shrink Attack » Sat May 07, 2011 1:22 pm

Everyone should know how Rob absolutely nailed this.

On his advice, I laid $150 for Animal Kingdom to win, place, or show. Since he won at 20-1, each bet paid and I won $5,730 on my $450 bet! :eek:

Rob...u da man!!!

Greg...can I add this to my NFFC lifetime earnings? ;)
"Deserve" ain't got nothin' to do with it
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Derby Day 11

Postby Greg Ambrosius » Mon May 09, 2011 9:17 am

Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
Everyone should know how Rob absolutely nailed this.

On his advice, I laid $150 for Animal Kingdom to win, place, or show. Since he won at 20-1, each bet paid and I won $5,730 on my $450 bet! :eek:

Rob...u da man!!!

Greg...can I add this to my NFFC lifetime earnings? ;)
That's amazing Paul. Rob does know his horses. I hope he won a similar amount. Very good guys and let's put that towards your NFFC ENTRIES!!!!! ;)
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Derby Day 11

Postby Glenneration X » Sat May 21, 2011 2:52 am

Is Rob going to give his NFFC brethren some insight into the Preakness?
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Derby Day 11

Postby Diesel » Sat May 21, 2011 5:29 am

How about some advice from someone who knows nothing about horse racing?

$2 trifecta box 9-10-11

Reading about this, it seems obvious that its a race between Dialed In and Animal Kingdom, with Mucho Macho as the crowd favorite to win out of the rest of the pack. Also. Macho Man Randy Savage just died in a car accident. I'm sure the Mucho Macho Man would want us all to cash in on this trifecta. ;)

Good luck!
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"Fantasy sports are all about LUCK. Except when I win."
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Derby Day 11

Postby Shrink Attack » Sat May 21, 2011 5:54 am

I'm thinking Astrology is gonna work into there somehow, and Shackleford too.

Trifecta box 1-5-11

Of course, whatever Rob says goes!
"Deserve" ain't got nothin' to do with it
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Derby Day 11

Postby Ted's Cracked Head » Sat May 21, 2011 7:34 am

The Preakness

I think that #11 Animal Kindgom has a great chance to build on his Derby win and get it done today. He is an improving horse who I think will take the next step. I think he can win under most conditions at this distance.

The only way he loses is if one of the early speed horses get out and is not pushed enough. I have a few horses that could wire this one if given the chance to.

The top of my contender list:

#5 Shackelford at 12/1 morning line odds, depends on how hard he is pushed. The gate serves him well as does the shortened distance. Solid horse. Could the derby have taken a toll? We’ll see in a little while.

#9 Mucho Macho Man at 6/1 ML, this is one of the better 3 yr olds and should be there at the end.

Longshots and horses to fill the exotics:

Both of these horses fit my profile for today’s race.

#7 Midnight Interlude @ 15/1 ML - throw out the Derby, I see a good effort coming.

#4 Flashpoint @ 20/1 - wire alert candidate or backstretch flameout/rabbit? Flashpooint can fly and might be sitting on a big race. Distance question to be answered today.


Wagering strategy:

Bet: $20 across #5 Shackelford
Bet: $2 exacta box #s 5, 9, 11 ($12 each bet)
Bet: $2 exacta - 5, all ($26)
Bet: $2 tri box #s 5, 9, 11 ($12 each unit)
Bet: $1 trifecta - 5,9,11 / 4,5,7,9,11 / 4,5,7,9,11 ($36 each unit)
Bet: $1 tri box 4,5,7,9,11 ($60)
Bet: $1 Super - 5,9,11 / 5,9,11 / 4,5,7,9,11 /4,5,7,9,11 ($36)
Bet: $1 Super - 5,9,11 / 5,9,11 / 5,9,11 / All ($66)
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Derby Day 11

Postby Diesel » Sat May 21, 2011 9:23 am

Well, after running home from work and going to the bank so I can put some cash on the race, I find after years of threatening to close OTB in Staten Island, they finally did it. I pull up to OTB, money in hand, only to see signs on the window saying CLOSED. Knowing Staten Island, they will probably replace it with a nail salon, tanning salon and a pizzeria.

Good luck today guys.
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